GW VS UMASS PREVIEW, PREDICTIONS
the dude
 2/14/2018 6:54:49 PM      Replies: 30

the dude2/13/2018 2:15:14 PM

Game preview thread, predictions, thread etc.

 

1

fan2/13/2018 2:22:13 PM

Surprisingly, GW finishes with their one A10 road win

1

mentzinger2/13/2018 3:04:43 PM

GW has already won its last game this season, loses this by 15+

2

tn2/13/2018 3:33:05 PM

In your opinion, which is the starting Point Gard, Mazz, Jair or someone else?

robsmithoasas2/13/2018 3:42:15 PM

Mentzinger,

GW has a good chance against Fordham. They could end up with 11 wins.

the mv2/13/2018 4:52:34 PM

Don't look now but Fordham has won 3 of their last 4.  Home wins over UMass and George Mason plus a road win at Duquesne.  That win over the Dukes took place without Joseph Chartouney, Fordham's best player.  And, they smoked Duquesne.  Not saying we can't beat them at home but that game is no longer the automatic W that it was when the schedule first came out.

1

the dude2/13/2018 6:54:25 PM

I'd say Mazz is your starting PG over Jair, for the rest of the season, as we've seen the last 3 games

3

dmvpiranha2/13/2018 7:35:16 PM

(In before the thread goes way off topic)

UMass was pretty much picked to finish close to the bottom of the league as the team begins a new era under Matt McCall, who left Chattanooga for Amherst and gave us one of the few bright points this season in Terry Nolan Jr. Like Duquesne, UMass has quite a few players sitting out so they are operating on a somewhat limited roster (4 to be exact - Curtis Cobb from Fairfield, Jonathan Laurent from Rutgers, Keon Clergeot from Memphis, and Kieran Hayward from LSU). McCall has also been extremely active on the recruiting trail in his short time there - for the class of 2019, UMass has offered close to 40 players to fill 5 spots. I know UMass has lower standards when recruiting than we do, but that's called doing a comprehensive search. In his young coaching career, McCall holds a 58-27 record, having won 29 and 19 games at Chattanoooga (he got the Mocs to the NCAA tournament his first year there). Prior to that, he was an assistant at Florida Atlantic and his alma mater, Florida. It will be interesting to see how he does at a slightly higher level in the A10.

Statistically, UMass averages 6 points more than we do with just a +1 advantage in rebounding. The Minutemen do a good job spreading the ball around in the halfcourt with an average of 16 assists per game (3 more than us). We hold the slight lead in steals and blocks. The turnover difference is even. The story is a bit different when looking at the shooting numbers. UMass is just two percentage points better shooting from the field, but an astounding eight percentage points better from behind the arc (they shoot 39%, good for 30th in the country). The Minutemen also shoot four percent better from the line, but since the game is on the road I would expect those percentages to be slightly higher. We need to be good in as many categories as possible to notch a win on the road (something we've of course not done all season; someone posted a stat that we've lost by close to 18 points on average away from Foggy Bottom?) Rebounding has to be better tomorrow than it was in Fairfax. Since UMass appears to be a legitimate three point threat, we need to take them off the arc as much as possible. That concerns me because we haven't exactly been good guarding the perimeter of late (to put it the nicest way possible). 

So far, UMass has won against UMass Lowell by 5 (home; a relatively new program that has struggled to find its footing so far; they aren't yet a threat in the America East), Niagara by 25 (home; the Purple Eagles are one of the better teams in the MAAC this year so a pretty good win; I thought Iona was the favorite and they still might be but Rider and Canisius appear to be a bit better at the moment), Western Carolina by 9 (home; a middle of the pack SoCon team that's two tiers below East Tennessee State and UNC Greensboro and one tier below Furman and Wofford), Holy Cross by 14 (home; not exactly a good team in a good conference - Colgate is probably the second best team in that conference and they let Bucknell come back from eight down in the last 30 seconds of the game to win the game - the league continues to be Bucknell and everybody else), Providence by 9 (home; the Friars are always pretty solid year in and year out so a good win), Georgia by 10 (home; they aren't an NCAA caliber team in a league that will get at least 8 bids this year; I honestly can't name another player on that team apart from Yante Maten (a good player who probably doesn't have much help), Maine by 11 (home; not exactly a "signature win"). Their wins in A10 play have been against Dayton by 2 (road), La Salle by 7 (home), St. Joe's by 3 (home), and Dayton again by 4 (home). Not some of the better teams in the conference, but hey they have a road win which is notable.

The Minutemen have fallen against: Harvard by 3 (road; the Crimson are probably the only threat to Penn this year in the Ivy, but when we played them at least they didn't seem very impressive), #14 Minnesota by 18 (played in Brooklyn, NY as part of the Barclays Center Classic; I thought Minnesota and Northwestern were very overrated coming into the season and so far they've shown that to be the case), BYU by 2 (also part of the Barclays Center Classic; the Cougars are a good team but they always seem to be a notch below Gonzaga and St. Mary's; you can almost predict those three teams to be at the top of the WCC every year), Quinnipiac by 2 (road; obviously not a good loss this year but the Bobcats are a team to watch a couple years from now once Baker Dunleavy has the players he wants and players like Kevin are eligible; I liked that hire and think he'll do well in the MAAC - they are already middle of the pack in his first year, and he took over a program that has never been good), South Carolina by 6 (road; a rebuilding year for the Gamecocks after their Final Four run last year), and Georgia State by 8 (home; the Sun Belt is a league that doesn't get a lot of recognition, but they have some good teams at the top, with the Panthers being one of them - they handed first place Louisiana Lafayette their only conference loss thus far; Ron Hunter is definitely a candidate to take a higher up position - maybe Ole Miss?). In conference, UMass has lost against St. Bonaventure by 20 (road), George Mason by 8 (home), Rhode Island by 22 (road), St. Louis by 19 (home), La Salle by 15 (road), Fordham by 13 (road), #22 Rhode Island again by 2 (home), and St. Joe's by 12 (road). Some bad beatdowns there, including that big home loss against SLU.

UMass has played a shortened rotation with the number of players sitting out. That rotation has become that much shorter when 2018 came around, with big hits to their frontcourt. A big presence in Rashaan Holloway was ruled academically ineligible (at least we'll never have to deal with that), Chris Baldwin injured his quad and opted for season-ending surgery, and freshman Khalea Turner-Morris is questionable for tomorrow's game after suffering a concussion from an elbow to the face in their last game against St. Joe's. Given all of this, they will probably play just six guys, with Turner-Morris being a seventh if he's able to clear the concussion protocol in time.

Luwane Pipkins (Bogan Preparatory School; Chicago, IL) is their leader responsible for nearly 30% of their scoring. Pipkins averages 20.5 ppg (second after BJ Johnson of La Salle) and also averages nearly four rebounds, four assists, and two steals (easily the team leader there) per game as well so he does it all. After what happened in the Mason game, I would imagine Yuta gets him. He is a decent shooter from inside the arc (43% overall - our team average), but much like the rest of the team, is deadly from 3 where he shoots 41%. Pipkins is also a good FT shooter at 79%. Make him settle for contested jumpers or defer to another player. He is very turnover prone with the ball in his hands so often - 3.4 a game which is a ton so maybe we could trap/double team him. If he is getting to the hoop/line at will and open looks from 3, it will be a long day. Last year, he struggled against us with just 3 points (0-4 FG, 0-4 3-pt, 3-5 FT) and three steals in 30 minutes of play. 

Carl Pierre (Boston College HS; Boston, MA) has given the Minutemen some good minutes in his first year of college basketball. Pierre averages 12.3 ppg to go with a couple of boards, but doesn't do too much else. He is the designated shooter on the team, shooting 47% overall but an even better 48% from deep (71-147) so we have to force him off the arc. Like Pipkins, Pierre shoots 79% from the line so again, if he is getting to the hoop/line at will and no shots are being contested along the perimeter, I don't like our chances at all.  

The rest of the rotation consists of: CJ Anderson (8.8 ppg, 4.9 rpg, 5.1 apg) not the Denver Broncos running back; Anderson leads the team in assists but also turns it over nearly three times a game so the key there is similar to Pipkins; we also have to make sure to box him out as his rebounding totals are very respectable for a guard; he is not a very good shooter though so maybe we can live with him taking more of the shots - 36% overall, 33% from 3, 78% from the line; force him to take jumpers and not let him get to the hoop; he had 5 points (2-5 FG, 1-2 3-pt), 2 rebounds, 2 assists, and 2 steals in 20 minutes off the bench last year, Malik Hines (8.1 ppg, 6.2 rpg) I guess he is their primary inside threat now - he shoots a good 65% near the hoop, and for a big man, a solid 75% from the line as well so we cannot let him get in a good position underneath; last year he had just 2 points (1-2 FG) and 2 rebounds while being in foul trouble (4 PF) in just 14 minutes of action, Unique McLean (5.9 ppg, 4.8 rpg, 1.8 apg) I guess you could say his name is very "unique" - another good rebounder for a guard of his size so we need to be aware of that but he isn't very efficient from the field - 39% overall, 30% from 3, 67% from the FT line; I would be fine with having him take more shots, and Rayshawn Miller (4.5 ppg, 1.6 rpg, 2 apg) a walk-on who plays nearly 25 minutes a game for them on a thin roster, he isn't very efficient from the floor either - 35% overall, 29% from 3, and 67% from the line; I'd again rather he take more shots than Pipkins or Pierre. Should Turner-Morris play, he won't have that much of an impact. He is a good shooter inside (62%) but that's pretty much all there is to say; I doubt he'll see many minutes.

Coming into the season, UMass was ranked 165th by ESPN and 192nd by CBS. Right now, they currently rank 196th on KenPom so Norlander was pretty spot on (Offense: 146th, Defense: 262nd, Pace: 303rd, SOS: 157th). This could be a fairly slow grind out win, but at times I would like to see us dictate the pace by playing faster. UMass has arguably a thinner roster than we do this year, so maybe we can tire their players out and put them in foul trouble. In 69 meetings from 1949-1950, we hold a 40-29 record against them with an average margin of victory of 1.5 points. We have won the last four meetings, with the last loss coming during the 2013-2014 season where we fell 67-61 (but got revenge in the conference tournament later in the season winning 85-77 with all starters Zeek (15), KevLar (12), Pato (15), Mo (12), and JoeMac (12) finishing in double figures and even Nemanja (14) getting hot with his shot before eventually making the NCAA tournament). What I want to see is the same as usual - being better guarding against penetration, a greater effort defending along the perimeter, and better offensive flow by spacing the floor and spreading the ball around (UMass isn't good defensively so this shouldn't be a problem). Any plays being run is an added bonus, and the team cannot afford to come out flat yet again after halftime. ESPN gives us a 24.7% chance to notch our first road win, and I take that to be a vote of confidence. Let's go! 

7

neil2/13/2018 9:42:31 PM

Rode game loss

1

gw future2/13/2018 9:47:03 PM

My prediction is that GW finishes with its worst record in A10 play since the 1-17 season of John Kuester. Thanks to Knapp, Nero and Maltzman for all their hard work in making this happen. A job well done boys!

4

chet2/13/2018 11:11:59 PM

I was going to say, if GW loses, Neil will have a mental breakdown. But, I am late on that one.

My condolences, Neil. Get well, soon.

2

the dude2/14/2018 12:45:05 AM

Nicely done as always DMV. A tour de force of previews!

1

please resign after the season2/14/2018 9:46:31 AM

College basketball action on Wednesday and a pair of teams from the Atlantic 10 Conference will square off as the George Washington Colonials duke it out with the Massachusetts Minutemen at William D. Mullins Memorial Center in Amherst, Massachusetts. The Colonials enter off a 72-65 loss to George Mason on the road and are now at 3-9 in league play, while the Minutemen have dropped to 4-8 in the Atlantic 10 after losing to St Joes on the road by a score of 85-73. These teams have not yet played each other this year.  

Road Woes Continue For The Colonials

The George Washington Colonials are just 10-15 on the year overall and they are in last place in the Atlantic 10 with a 3-9 record and a big part of their struggles this year has been their play on the road. The Colonials come in off a 72-65 loss to George Maron on the road and they have now gone 0-8 in their true road games and they have also gone 0-2 in their neutral site games. It was the first time that George Mason beat the Colonials as members of the A-10. This team just can’t win away from home right now. They have averaged just 58.2 ppg and have allowed 76.1 ppg in their true road games so far, so they have really been blasted in most of their road games this year. The loss to George Mason was their closest road loss of the year, but still, it was a loss. The Colonials shot just 43.1% from the field overall in the game, including just 33.3% of their shots from long range and they also missed eight free throws as well. This is not a good offensive team and they showed it in that game. Leading their attack in the game was Yuta Watanabe (15.6 ppg), who had 19 points along with 12 boards, while Jair Bolden (11.7 ppg) had 11 to round out their double-digit scorers in the game. On defense, they allowed the Patriots to hit just 40.4% of their shots overall but also allowed them to 41.2% of their shots from long range. This game could have been more of a blowout, but the Patriots did miss 13 free throws in the game. The Colonials have averaged 63.8 ppg and have allowed 74.3 ppg in their league games this year.

George Washington has been very poor on offense so far as they enter this contest ranked 335th in the nation in scoring, putting up 64.6 ppg, while also ranking 276th in shooting (42.7%), 330th in 3-point shooting (31.0%) and 232nd in free throw shooting (69.8%). At the defensive end of the court, they have been decent so far as they enter this contest ranked 136th in the nation in points allowed, giving up 70.6 ppg, while also ranking 290th in defensive FG% (46.3%) and 314th in 3-point defense (37.7%).

Another Bad Defensive Effort For The Minutemen

The UMass Minutemen are really struggling at the moment as they come in having lost six of their last seven games and the defense has been an issue for them of late as they have allowed at least 82 points in each of their last four losses. They may not have to worry about their defense struggling too much in this one as the Colonials have averaged just 58.1 ppg in their true road games this year. The Minutemen come in off an 85-73 loss to St Joe’s on the road and that loss dropped them to just 4-8 in league play and just 11-14 overall. The defense really struggled against the Hawks as they allowed 85 points on 46.2% shooting from the field overall, including 37.0% from long range and they forced the Hawks into just seven turnovers while committing 13 of their own. The offense played well in the game as the hit 45.2% of their shots from the field overall, including 56.0% of their shots from long range, but they were outscored 15-3 at the charity stripe, which along with turnovers, was the difference in the game. Leading their attack in the game was Luwane Pipkens (20.5 ppg) and Carl Pierre (12.3 ppg) who both had 21, while also scoring in double figures in the game was C.J. Anderson (8.8 ppg), who had 14. The Minutemen have averaged 70.6 ppg and have allowed 78.8 ppg in league play this year so far.

The Minutemen have not been great on offense so far as they come into this game ranked 252nd in the nation in scoring, putting up just 71.0 ppg, while also ranking 175th in shooting (44.8%), 30th in 3-point shooting (39.0%) and 75th in free throw shooting (74.1%). At the defensive end of the court, they have been below average as they have allowed 73.1 ppg, which is 197th in the nation, while also ranking 237th in defensive FG% (44.8%) and 188th in 3-point defense (34.8%).

The Colonials have really struggled on the road this year and their offense has been the problem for them in those games as they have averaged just 58.1 ppg in their true road games so far. The Minutemen have been horrible on defense of late, but they will not be in this game. They have allowed just 70.8 ppg at home and I don’t see the Colonials topping 65 points in this one. The Minutemen may get their fair share of points in this one, but still, I do not see the Colonials scoring enough for this game to go Over the total. Take the Under in this one.

2

dominic2/14/2018 10:12:28 AM

1) Game gets snowed out.

2) Teams agree, not to re-schedule

3) Board Asshole spend 873 Billion electrons to explain why Former Colonia deserves the GW athletic Hall of Fame, and beatitude. 

1

dominic2/14/2018 10:13:34 AM

Former Colonial. With the 'l' since that is his formal name. 

nj colonial2/14/2018 11:27:54 AM

Colonials beat the Minutemen 68-54.

3

the mv2/14/2018 12:06:25 PM

Alway nice to see Chet commenting on someone else's mental health.  Professional comedy writers should spend some time on this site, just to pick up a few pointers.

The best thing that GW has going for it tonight is that I really don't think they want to go 0-fer on the road this season and this is their best remaining chance at a road victory (better than at St. Louis or at Dayton).  You'd have to think that pride kicks in at some point.

The next best thing is that we have Yuta to guard Luwane Pipkins who has been arguably the conference's most explosive player this year along with Jaylen Adams.  This of course assumes that Yuta draws the assignment and stays on Pipkins even through screens.

The next best thing is the Holloway suspension because we really would not have had a defensive answer for him.  Without him, UMASS has won just once in their last 7 games and that took two overtimes against Dayton.  (They did, however, play Rhody to a 2 point loss during this stretch.)

GW is a 3 1/2 point dog tonight so this is clearly a winnable game.  Terry is listed as questionable with his ankle injury (you could see him take off in a very haphazard manner and come down hard on the ankle).  It would be a shame to miss him, not solely because we need him like always, but also because it would be interesting to watch him play against the coach who he had been scheduled to play for at one point.

 

 

 

bo knows2/14/2018 12:46:26 PM

I see this game as one of two possibilities:

 

1. A bounce (maybe a dead cat bounce) whereby we beat UMass in a close one.

2. A blowout loss especially if Terry isn't playing. 

If #1 happens, I still feel we can salvage some respectability down the stretch. If #2 happens, the free fall continues and it could get ugly fast with the very distinct possibility that we are looking at winning one or no games left this season.

 

 

 

1

free quebec2/14/2018 12:59:10 PM

On paper, we should match up really well with UMass.  They rely heavily on Pipkins and Pierre shooting from three (which they do really well), but Pipkins is exactly the type of player Yuta tends to shut down. In fact, Pipkins went just 0-4 from the field against us last year.   Will be interesting to see if Yuta takes him or if we switch everything like we did vs Mason (maybe MoJo would rather work on how he wants to play next year with switching screens, even if it costs us some wins)  

With Baldwin out, they only have one player taller than 6’6” who plays much, but we can sometimes be exploited by smaller, quicker players in the boards. 

They don’t force turnovers and are bad on the defensive glass, which is also helpful for us.  

I think the under probably is the right pick.  I’m actually headed to Vegas now, and while I would never bet against my team, I am just not sure 5.5 is enough for us on the road - even against a team who on paper we should match up with. 

1

free quebec2/14/2018 1:28:31 PM

Maybe the sharps expect Yuta to shut down Pipkins.   The line opened at 5.5 but has moved to 3.5. 

1

rich maier2/14/2018 1:45:36 PM

FQ, good luck in Vegas. 

mentzinger2/14/2018 1:49:54 PM

I get the warm fuzzies from Rob Smith's post. It's heartening to hear we might have a chance to beat Fordham.

1

gw alum abroad2/14/2018 1:56:20 PM

You know, at the end of tonight more people will care about the upcoming South Africa-India cricket one-day, the Vegas Sevens rugby tournament and (gasp) Olympic curling than will care about the UMassholes-GW game. Still, if the 1-27 team so many here want to unfairly compare this team to could beat UMassholes, why not a win tonight?

2

bigfan2/14/2018 2:33:29 PM

GW basketball aside, have a good time in Vegas, FQ.

Feel we're due against a pretty equally bad team plagued by key player loss, but felt that way wrongly before.

Need a LaSalle type performance on both ways from Yuta or someone else catching fire, one would think, if Terry is out. And if Terry is questionable in any way, sit him out. We need Terry for another 3-plus years.

Want to win, but don't care if we lose every scheduled game at this point--and somehow catch fire in the league tournament like we did in the NIT (albeit with way worse coaching and personnel this year). Maybe we can be like that old Southern Conference team that made the NCAAs with a quite losing record.

Extremely unlikely, of course, but delusionally trying to look at as glass half full. FQ would get rich if he even put $10 down on that proposition in Vegas.

tuna can2/14/2018 3:17:31 PM

GWAA, I am watching the replays of the tri-meeting in Australia. After losing only the last T20 to Pakistan this past month, New Zealand is looking strong with a young crew. So, I think you have my priorities in the right place on this. I put my own investment in the situation somewhere between herve and St Francis. In fact, with my family connection to UMASS basketball as well as GW, you will find me at a dinner with a college friend who is in town.


gw alum abroad2/14/2018 4:18:58 PM

My grandmother told me "you have to try everything once" so I tried attending a one-day international once. Once. Imagine baseball, only with all action limited to between the mound and the plate and no seats closer to the action than the centerfield bleachers and it taking 8 hours and only one ball (the baseball equivalent of a "pitch") thrown every 50 seconds... well it cured my insomnia faster than you can say "We don't care if it is the first act of Henry V, we're leaving."

 

dominic2/14/2018 4:23:49 PM

I had a friend who tried to interest me in cricket. I learned that the Babe Ruth of cricket actually was fatter than our Babe Ruth. 

tuna can2/14/2018 4:51:48 PM

GWAA and Dominic, I use cricket to work by. The commentary is pretty funny since that's all that they got and plenty of time to fill. Sort of like listening to Bud Collins broadcast an entire tennis tourney by himself in the old days. I tend to watch T20 which is a "slug it out" game that is made up of 20 6 pitch "overs" and with a time limit. They also limit the number of fielders outside  what amounts to the "infield" -- Otherwise, you have just what you described. A brutally slow and uninteresting game where every minute or so, one guy bounces the ball at a guy wearing a helmet and pads and that guy takes a plank of wood with a handle and blocks the ball .... then someone picks up the ball and they repeat. Occassionally, they call for a lunch break.

dominic2/14/2018 5:55:02 PM

At one time, I knew some black guys from Bermuda and Bahamas. Fun guys.  They were nuts about cricket, played it from early on, one played at university.  They said, the former British colonies in the West Indies dominated the game. The game was Britain's sole gift to them. 

I had to take their word for it. But, when I went to a couple matches in person, my sole interest was in picking up the jargon. Which, I forgot.  The matches I saw were clubs from India, Pakistan, Bahamas, Bermuda. Everybody got along. Don' t know if they drank beer after the games, like I did at rugby. 

I 'listen' to radio baseball when I work in warm weather. 

Well, I need to go. 

1

dmvpiranha2/14/2018 6:46:29 PM

You don't enjoy watching test cricket? Who doesn't love watching a match that lasts 5 days only to end in a draw. You have to give props to the fielders though. They don't have a glove to catch the ball and I can't imagine it's a lot of fun to catch it with your hands. I'll never understand the D/L method - why can't the match just be rescheduled when it's sunny again?

gw alum abroad2/14/2018 6:54:49 PM

 Clearly, UMASSholes coming here for insight on the game are going to be disappointed... 

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