GW vs PRINCETON, PREVIEW/PREDICTIONS
the dude
 12/6/2017 11:03:30 PM      Replies: 41

the dude12/4/2017 10:05:27 PM

On the heels of a great win against Temple, enters Princeton.  Princeton has one of the NCAA's best shooters in Devin Cannady.  They've played a tough schedule, wihout much success in the Ws, and yet played Butler tough on the road. This should be one of the few games we play this year with a significiant athletic edge.

Do we see more Mazz at the Point in this game?  Things you'd like to see??

Thoughts? Predictions? Princeton insights??

3

104.162.86.5912/5/2017 1:40:30 AM

We'd have the edge athletically. I'm not surprised at all by the Butler game. They are extremely well coached and patient. There would be no letdown similar to what happened with Temple. The Tigers' style is so well known now since many of their former players are coaching. Expect the usual "back door them to death" approach. I'm sure MJ has film on these guys!

robsmithoasas12/5/2017 1:41:40 AM

Forgot to sign in for the post above!

1

colonial7712/5/2017 3:32:57 AM

Princeton went to NCAA tournament last year after undefeated ivy season. 

2

maine colonial12/5/2017 8:53:06 AM

GW 65, Princeton 60.

GW is 2-1 all-time vs. Princeton having won the last two: 65-50 on 11/24/09 and 60-57 on 12/3/01. Princeton's only win was 84-67 in 3/14/61. Dick Markowitz had 25 points for GW.

1

jersey guy12/5/2017 9:13:51 AM

My GW Gnome says GDub 60-58

1

dmvpiranha12/5/2017 9:47:06 AM

Princeton of course has always had the reputation of being a fundamentally sound basketball team. Even though they aren't off to the start I'm sure they wanted, I would still put them as the clear third best team in a competitive Ivy League that has really stepped up its efforts on the recruiting front after Yale (starring Makai Mason who will transfer to Baylor next year), and Patrick's alma mater Harvard (they were very young when we faced them last year, and they gave us quite the fight). Maybe Penn can compete for the third spot, but outside of Brodeur I like Princeton's roster more.

The Tigers won't be one of the better offensive teams that we face and aren't very good rebounding the ball (they average around 66 pts per game; we have the slightest of edges in both overall field goal efficiency and free throw shooting but they are still better from behind the arc even after our recent surge). Those are two keys for the game. We need to outrebound them and defensively hold them under 70 points. They roughly average around the same in the other categories other than blocks where we have a large advantage. We'll be able to limit them defensively if we alter their shots with Yuta and Bo taking the lead on that front.

So far Princeton has won at home against an awful Lafayette team that should finish last or close to last in the Patriot by 14 and on the road against Fairleigh Dickinson who has been one of the better teams in the NEC the past few years but don't usually rise above mediocre status by 7.

Their losses have come on the road to Butler (by 10), at home against BYU (by 9), away against St. Joe's (by 13; and with Kimble already out), at home against an okay Lehigh team (by 9), and at home against future opponent Miami (by 28; part of the Miami Invitational). At the very least they will be battle tested.

It's a bit tougher to determine what kind of rotation Princeton will use against us as Ivy League schools don't have scholarship limits. The Tigers have a ton of depth which I'm sure helps them avoid foul trouble. I'll break down the ones I expect to see/maybe have an impact:

Devin Cannady is a baller. The 3 star guard from Mishawaka, Indiana leads them in scoring at 19 points per game along with 3 rebounds. He is a shooter we need to keep track of - 48% from the field overall, 90% from the line (18/20), and 52% behind the arc (26/50 - a large sample size!) Those are definitely eye popping numbers. Yuta will have to take him off the arc.

Myles Stephens is their second option who may be the heart of the team. The junior wing gives them 14 ppg along with a team-high six rebounds and 2 assists (although he can be a bit turnover prone at times - averages 2.7 a game). He is efficient inside the arc (54%) but not outside (just 29%) and is just okay from the line (69%). In other words, we cannot let him get to the rim and must force him to take jumpers.

Amir Bell is the final key player to keep track of who like Stephens does a little bit of everything. As the senior floor general of the team, Bell leads the team in just under 4 assists per game. He also scores just over 10 ppg along with 5 rebounds but is not very efficient shooting from the field (38% overall, 70% from the line which is okay, and 31% from 3). Again, it would make sense to prevent him from getting to the basket to get his efficiency numbers up.

The rest of the rotation consists of: Sebastian Much (a freshman forward from California who is not bad finishing inside, but isn't a good free throw or long range shooter), Mike LeBlanc (maybe he knows our president? Gives them 5 points and 3 boards but isn't a good shooter apart from the free throw line where he is perfect to begin the season), Jose Morales (he doesn't get a ton of playing time and averages just 4 ppg but he is good shooting the ball - 50% overall, 80% FT, and 40% from 3), Ryan Schwieger (not a good shooter but gives them 3 ppg and 2 rpg), Richmond Aririguzoh (there's always one player on the opposition with an awesome name; he would probably be the winner for Princeton. He is good shooting inside but doesn't play a lot. Princeton has a ton of players who average around three points per game), Alec Brennan (a fairly well-regarded prospect coming out of HS in Massachusetts, the 3 star senior center gives them 3 ppg while shooting 57% from 3 (4/7) and 75% from the line. He is just 1/6 from shots inside the arc), Jerome Desrosiers (the 3 star freshman SG from Canada had some good offers coming out of HS but hasn't got off to a good start shooting from the field), and Aaron Young (the senior PG from VES is again not a good shooter and won't have much of an impact). Princeton also has another five guys who have appeared in at least one game this season but I'll skip them because I don't think they'll play. Again, there's no guarantee all of the role players mentioned above will play. Only Schwieger, Brennan, and Young have appeared in every game from the above.

I don't know that KenPom's metrics are reliable this early in the season but Princeton is ranked slightly ahead of us in both offensive and defensive efficiency. They also play pretty much as slowly as we do pace wise. It will be a good test against a team that is very comparable to ours thus far. This is a game that will test our focus mentally. If we are locked in, we'll win. If we aren't, we could lose.

I'll also give a quick thought about the whole Jair-Terry-Justin conundrum that others were discussing on the other thread. I don't think we need to change it up but I would like to see Justin get closer to 20 minutes if he continues to play well (just like I want to see Juice play closer to 12-15 whether a big chunk of that is in the first half or not - I'm convinced we have more depth than we are willing to play). Jair and Terry can continue to start which will keep them happy and continue to give Jair some time to continue to progress as a decision maker (it will be beneficial to have two good passers in Justin and Jair on the court at the same time in the future), and then after the first or second media timeout sub Justin in for one of them. Although I do want to see the Justin-Jair combination I'm curious to see more of the Justin-Terry backcourt as well. The two playing the best down the stretch will get the crunch time minutes.  

Coming into the season, Princeton was ranked 76th by ESPN (probably partly from their success last year) and 129th by CBS. They are currently ranked 145th on KenPom (Offense: 135th Defense: 157th Pace: 338th SOS: 75th). ESPN gives us a 54.3% chance to win at home (the win against Temple may have pushed the odds in our favor but it still seems a tad low).      

12

ziik the senile old man12/5/2017 10:19:52 AM

DO you have another life, DMV? Outside of basketball? 

I could not possibly double check your work for accuracy, but, it sure seems complete. 

Thanks, once more.

3

the mv12/5/2017 10:33:43 AM

I'll second that.  Thanks DMV for all of your time-consuming work.  It is much appreciated.

4

tennesse colonial12/5/2017 10:56:21 AM

Good stuff DMV. Very detailed reports. Can I ask what was your major?

3

ziik the senile old man12/5/2017 11:03:50 AM

No trick questions, TC.

DMV is a savant.

2

dmvpiranha12/5/2017 11:37:41 AM

Haha thanks Ziik, MV, TC, and everyone for the support! You would be surprised to know that my previews/recaps usually don't take more than 30-45 minutes to write (I try to avoid typos but they're inevitable at times). It takes a bit of research of course (no one knows everything about all 351 teams in division 1) but I usually cover certain things in them which make them easier to know what to write. I work as a programmer but have always been a big college basketball/analytics guy so it's like a hobby/break for me when I'm not working. Proud SEAS alum here having majored in computer science with minors in statistics and music.

9

the other mg12/5/2017 12:19:58 PM

To use a spin on what we used to chant in the 60s: DMV Si', Backbiting namecallers No!

4

nj colonial12/5/2017 1:08:07 PM

The Columbian College in the District of Columbia - 68

The College of New Jersey - 60

1

gw6912/5/2017 1:09:31 PM

DMV--I am completely hooked and dependent on your scouting.

No frills--no nonsense,straight forward reportage of the highest 

quality.--I guess what I want to say is---Please never leave the board--

in truth you are not replaceable.

5

gw6912/5/2017 1:11:34 PM

Oh-Us 73 Them 60.

1

the dude12/5/2017 2:28:54 PM

Certainly echo the others thoughts on DMV, great stuff man!

2

the mv12/5/2017 2:33:27 PM

Colonials installed as a two point favorite over Princeton.  Up to 2 1/2 in certain circles already.

2

havlicek stole the ball12/5/2017 4:10:00 PM

Princeton is a dangerous game for us. GW by 2. 

1

nj colonial12/5/2017 4:11:12 PM

DMV - you are true Buff & Blue, great writing!  Thanks and Raise High!

3

the dude12/5/2017 6:26:12 PM

Princeton came into the year 76th in the 1-351 RPM list.  But I think that understated what they lost including the Ivy player of the year Spencer Weisz (yep, he is Jewish, for you Members of the Tribe)

But this dude Cannady has as good a set of shooting % as I've seen in D1, FT% and 3%.  Impressive. 

1. Does Yuta primarily take Cannady or TNJr?

2. Might we actually press a team? An Ivy would present a chance to do so. At some point, I'd like to see GW roll out a little ball pressure.  Eventually I think we'll have a deeper roster of athletes in the next few years, but handy to have when you fall behind and need a quick rally. Can't recall the last press I've seen from GW.

3. Steeves has really shined vs this level of athlete, so I expect to see more of the offense running through him in the high post.

1

the other mg12/5/2017 6:38:46 PM

Good point about Steeves.  Though we should win this, I'm going to predict Princeton 64, GW 62, just to make us all humble (and crazy) after the Temple win.  But fingers firmly crossed behind my back.

1

maine colonial12/5/2017 7:22:10 PM

Hopefully Steeves can repeat the performance he had against Princeton on 3/14/16 when he scored 25 points for the GW of the Charles. He was 9-13 from the field including 3-6 from three and had a block at the buzzer to dash Princeton’s dreams of an Ivy League title. He should watch his highlights to try to get his three-point shot back. It looks like his release is lower now: HIGHLIGHTS

3

colonial7712/6/2017 4:53:49 AM

My prediction is that we shall see a few minutes of Javier. 

1

ziik the scrivener12/6/2017 7:58:15 AM

I think we can just put Steeves out there by himself. Let him do the Superman act. He's due.

2

bm12/6/2017 9:20:42 AM

Worried about a disapointment from three after the Temple game, especially against a team which depends on three pointers for 45% of their scoring.  Hobbs teams were really good at throttling the Princeton offense, but not sure about the ML coaching tree.  

I predict more backdoors moves than a Sasha Grey DVD box set (how's that herve?).

GW by five.

 

3

the mv12/6/2017 9:32:24 AM

You either have to be way more talented to beat Princeton (which we are probably not) or smart enough to avoid various traps that they will set up for you to fall into.  Fortunately, I think GW is  a pretty smart team (most of the time).  If we value our possessions and avoid the crazy unforced turnovers, we should be fine.

1

bm12/6/2017 12:05:08 PM

Princeton Thread

gw alum abroad12/6/2017 1:17:07 PM

I find the Princeton board's thread interesting because I don't think any of us here give GW those kind of props. Struggling vs Hampton and Morgan St and losing to Rider makes beating Temple the game that puts GW on the CBI bubble, not a team that should make a top Ivy quiver in fear. Then again, GW should never feel itself an underdog to a prep school from a New Jersey slum (😆 a friend from high school is now mayor of Princeton so I jest about the "slum" part).

the dude12/6/2017 2:31:51 PM

Question for you all. Does this GW team match up better against:

1. Small, undersized, athletic teams (Rider, Morgan State etc)

2.  Lower caliber athletes who shoot well  (Ivy league teams, Princeton, Harvard coming up)

We haven't yet seen a #2, eager to see how we fare against  team of this ilk. Thoughts?

 

 

bigfan12/6/2017 3:47:07 PM

Problem would be if they put it together to shoot well, which most teams like this do against us--and the classic back door plays.

The brilliant Steeves knows what to look for and how to play them. See if he can impart that knowledge to the rest of the team in a manner that sticks.

Hope we can continue with better 3 point shooting. We need to use our presumably superior athleticism and our speed in transition.

Maybe some of the depth we rarely see, like Juice.

Won't be a high scoring affair if we continue to play out the shot clock.

 

 

the mv12/6/2017 4:08:46 PM

BF, not expecting to see many fast break points against Princeton mainly because their guys should likely get back on defense.  They are not an aggressive offensive rebounding team which tells me they make transition defense a priority.

If you're looking for a GW stat of the day, here it goes...our two Justins have combined to play 7 fewer minutes so far this season than Bo, and yet each Justin by himself has grabbed more rebounds this season than Bo (14 for each Justin, 13 for Bo).  This has to change, and I fully expect that it will.

101.140.188.19412/6/2017 5:57:26 PM

http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/conferences/statistics/player/_/id/3/stat/blocks

Yuta leads BLK/PF by far.

thethe12/6/2017 6:07:27 PM

http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/conferences/statistics/player/_/id/3/stat/blocks

Yuta leads in BLK/PF by far.Great.

pkgw12/6/2017 7:04:23 PM

Need be a disciplined defense today.  

mike k12/6/2017 7:05:27 PM

Anyone else having problems on the atlantic10.com?

mike k12/6/2017 7:07:37 PM

Got it

the dude12/6/2017 7:09:20 PM

GW 71 -60.

2

the dude12/6/2017 10:05:36 PM

71-60, haha.  That's wild.  A lot more pleased about the W, and the double digit nature of it, than sticking the score. Doc69 you, basically nailed it too.

 

2

the dude12/6/2017 10:35:56 PM

Loyola won AT Florida.  Loyola, at Florida.  Harvard beat Fordham and Brown took Providence to OT.  The Ivy League has really come a long way in the last decade top to bottom.

Washington has been leading Kansas from the tip, they are up 5 in the 2nd half.  In Kansas.  A night of upsets.  But not in the Smith Center for our Colonials!

 

 

the dude12/6/2017 11:03:30 PM

1 more game.  Ga Tech having lost to Grambling a few days ago, lost to Wofford tonight at the buzzer.  Yikes.

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