What's Your Goal/Expectation For 2014-15?
Created: 7/28/2014 2:10:19 PMReplies: 34
7/28/2014 2:10:19 PM - The MV - 4,343 posts (#4)
What better time than late July to give some thought as to your realistic goals and expectations for the upcoming season. Another way of putting this is would be to define what you would regard as a disappointing season as well as what would constitute a successful one.
Here are my thoughts. First, I'd have to say that anything less than an NIT appearance would have to be considered disappointing. This would include those lesser end-of-year buy-in tournaments. There appears to be enough returning talent combined with a very talented freshman class to suggest that at least an NIT appearance should be anticipated. Next, a first round NIT loss wouldn't make me happy but wouldn't be devastating either. There is a ton of talent in college basketball and such a loss could be considered the rough equivalent of having lost to Marquette last season. Not shocking. At least one win in the NIT would be significant and a string of wins would be tremendous, giving the team that much more experrience and confidence headed into the following year (apologies to John Kopriva), when I believe the "expectation ante" should be upped by quite a bit.
It's easy to say that a first-game NCAA tournament loss would represent a lack of progress (same result as this past year) but I don't see this that way at all. What many fans seem to forget is that unless you are consistently landing among the top high school talent in the country annually, it is very challenging to make the NCAA tournament. An NCAA appearance next year should be considered an even more monumental achievement than this season given the departures of Zeke, Mo and Nemanja (despite the added experience our returning players will have received). The big differences are that on the plus side, we will (hopefully) receive a healthy and productive season from Kethan, while on the flip side, GW will be sneaking up on nobody. (For example, if we were to face a Wichita State in Hawaii, I believe they'd be perceiving GW a bit differently than the way Creighton did this past season.) So needless,to say, I'd be very content with an NCAA appearance, thrilled with one NCAA tournament win, and off the deep end over multiple wins.
7/28/2014 2:27:24 PM - Boston Colonial - 295 posts (#75)
20 wins, one A-10 tourney win and at least NIT
7/28/2014 2:36:56 PM - Dootie Bubble - 1,827 posts (#17)
7/28/2014 2:44:57 PM - Steven - 196 posts (#104)
7/28/2014 2:47:24 PM - Abe - 238 posts (#91)
It's probably unfair because Zeke was a really big loss and I anticipate there being struggles to defend bigs in the post and rebound consistently, but I'm expecting another NCAA appearance this season.
My main reasons for optimism:
-Three of the Core Four: Pato, Kethan, and Joe (knock on wood) are all healthier than they were last year. If we can get full productive seasons out of them, that will be big.
-Anticipating this recruit class will provide a lot better depth this year, especially at the guard position.
-I think ML will be able to do some good things scheme-wise with the 1-3-1 and running a small lineup on offense.
We'll see how it plays out, the schedule is definitely challenging but taking the above into account I think making the dance is doable.
7/28/2014 3:16:41 PM - NewGWFan - 396 posts (#56)
I agree that loss of Zeke is huge, but that being said, I think this team will be significantly better at the end of the season than it will be at the beginning of the season. I'm not sure you can say that about last years team. Last year the injuries really effected the team from being 100% of what they could have been. I know injuries can happen any year and everything but I think this team will progress and get better as the season goes on.
I haven't heard a lot of chatter that this team could actually be better than last years team but I don't think it's out of the realm of possibility. Think about last years team, of the main contributors they lose Zeke, Creek, and Mikic. From the point Savage went down with the injury, and JoeMac played through multiple games hurt, and Creek had a big time cold spell during conference play, they still managed to put together a great season.
This years version will obviously face their own adversity, but think about what they are gaininig over last years team. A healthy JoeMac and Savage. An influx of depth with the freshman class. Ryan McCoy (could make some kind of impact?) at minimum replaces what Paris did last year. Not to mention another year of experience for the players in the program.
I think it's very possible this team could end up back in the NCAA that's a realistic goal with a top 4 finish in the A-10.
I think if your taking a pessamistic view point the a disappointing season would be some bad early season OOC losses followed up by version of the LaSalle 2013-14 season where they miss out on any post season play and regress burning up much of the good will the team built up in the area and the local media over the past season.
7/28/2014 4:03:37 PM - BGF - 159 posts (#120)
I believe we are going to be in the top 4 in the A-10. Yes, we've lost talent, but we have gained a solid recruiting class, a healthy Kethan Savage, and a practicing Joe McDonald. In other words, we should be no worse than last year.
I believe at least 4 A-10 teams will make the NCAA Tourney again.
Therefore I believe we are an NCAA Tourney team.
Everything after that is gravy.
7/28/2014 4:10:05 PM - ziik - 2,501 posts (#11)
1) ML's Euro trip of last year results in another mature, quality recruit with size by start of school
2) after a damned tough November/December, the team is tough enough to take the A-10 tourney, and does so
7/28/2014 4:55:37 PM - Bo Knows - 388 posts (#58)
1. Goal - NCAA Tournament (same as every year)
2. Expectations: We will be a deeper team that if healthy will be a better team at the end of the season than at the beginning. We will not win as many games as in 2013-14 but we may be a stronger team at the end. The ability to play more lineups and create more competition in practices will serve this team very well in the long run. My only concern will be our frontcourt and how we deal with the loss of Armwood. I believe our backcourt if helathy will deal better with the loss of Mo Creek. If we can rebound and defend the post well we are going to win big.
7/28/2014 7:15:35 PM - Tk - 171 posts (#115)
Same as last year. 2016: sweet 16 or bust
7/28/2014 7:38:52 PM - Orel Miraculous - 216 posts (#97)
Expectation is to make the NCAA tournament. Yes, losing Armwood hurts. But for all the talk about Zeek and Creek, the core of the team last year was made up of four sophomores. All of them are returning, all of them are healthy, and all of them should be better, so now isn't the time to lower expectations.
I will be disappointed if we fail to make out of the first round, but not disappointed in a the-team-failed-to-live-up-to-its-potential way, but more of a come-the-fuck-on-how-many-times-are-we-just-gonna-bow-out-by-Friday-night way.
7/28/2014 7:42:14 PM - pops - 299 posts (#73)
if we stay healthy i believe we will be better than last year. our record may not be quite as good because i think we have a harder OOC schedule? on the other hand the A10 won't be as difficult. being healthy is the key. everyone talks about the savage and McDonald injuries but we forget that Garino missed or played hurt most of the 1st half.
we should battle at the top of the A10 with VCU and URI who in addition to others will have Jared Hare back. Also i think that losing mumford will be addition by subtraction for them.
7/28/2014 8:24:26 PM - Omar Comin' - 467 posts (#47)
Top 5 in the A-10, two players on A-10 All-Conference Teams, NCAA First Round or NIT 3rd Round.
7/28/2014 9:54:51 PM - Longing for Oscar - 1,010 posts (#29)
In my opinion, we've lost our two best players to graduation. If we are healthy (and stay healthy) i think we can compensate for the losss of Creek, but I don't see how this team overcomes the loss of Armwood. Larsen's a terrific player, but he'll never be as quick or have the nose for the ball like Armwood. That being said, I think we might be an NCAA bubble team and just to be in the discussion would exceed my expectation. On another note, 2015-2016 could be an incredible year for us.
7/28/2014 10:30:38 PM - Raining cats and dogs - 9 posts (#239)
We are in great shape in the backcourt and on the wing. Can Larsen, Garino, Kopriva, McCoy, Watanabe, Cimino give us enough size and strength upfront. Hope and think so.
7/29/2014 12:12:52 AM - bobo - 2,929 posts (#8)
No reason GW can't go back to the Dance next season. I have them 3rd in the A10 after VCU and Dayton and ahead of UMASS and RU. For GW to rise up I think Garino will have to take the next step offensively. The broken finger clearly affected Garino's shooting touch as he struggled at the line and was much more reluctant to shoot 3s than his freshman year. If GW can get too 3pt shooting from Garino, McDonald, Griffin and Jorgensen they should be a better offensive team than the year before.
Defensively, the 1-3-1 should be very effectie with Patricio up front and all the lenth on the wings. Maybe Lonergan can mix it up more with 2-3 zones, man and press at times. With all the injuries last year it had to be hard to work in multiple defensive sets. Obvious potential hole in GW's chances next year is the front cort D and rebounding. Somehow Lonergan needs to get about 25 minutes/game from Cimino and Yuta (my pick for back up 4). This is a real question mark and there's not a lot of good options if at least 1 or these 2 can't battle big men down low and grab some boards. Expect a lot of quick hooks and dirty looks from Lonergan for these 2.
But GW can still have a good year and not make the Tourney. Last year, GW got on a nice roll in the OOC. Close wins against Miami and Maryland helped. So did a good matchup vs a high RPI team in Creighton. That kind of stuff is hard to repeat and a couple of close losses in the OOC would likely change GW's post season fortunes.
7/29/2014 12:24:48 AM - GW Fan - 446 posts (#49)
My Goals/Expectations expectations for 2014/15?
Goals: Drop 5-10 lbs plus 6-pack abs
Expectations: Gain 5-10 lbs plus many 6-packs of Longboard & Fat Tire
As far as the team goes my goals/expectations are a top 3 finish in conference, playing in the A-10 tourney final, and an NCAA bid. I think the tough OOC schedule will allow ML to evaluate the newcomers and prepare the team for a strong showing in-conference. I think we have a lot of offense coming back and will have more bench scoring this upcoming season than last. The big question mark will be defensive rebounding and limiting second chance points, especially when we go to the 1-3-1 zone. I'm optimistic that we'll be able to rebound well with a starting lineup of Kevlar, Pato, Joe, Kethan and JK, who all rebound well for their positions, and I'm sure ML will be emphasizing defense and rebounding to all of the newcomers.
7/29/2014 12:50:55 AM - Long Suffering Fan - 3,498 posts (#6)
17-19 wins, 500 in conference, CBI bid. Fact is, we are only returning 4 proven players (2 coming off of major injuries) and 2 role players (Kopriva and Griffin). After that it is 5 freshman and a walk on. (Who am I forgetting...thats only 11 scholarship players plus McCoy). In any event, it is hard to win with freshmen playing a sigificant role. The Hall/Pops/Omar class struggled their freshmen year as did the Joe Mac, Patricio, Larsen and Kethan class. There is an adjustment period...a learning curve (unless you are Kentucky or Duke). Some very good returning talent is going to make us a winning team. The lack of veteran depth is going to prevent us from approaching last year.
7/29/2014 4:36:31 AM - pops - 299 posts (#73)
LSF, I would suggest the situation you describe does not require any one freshman playing a significant role. they will only gain significant roles through positive performance. this is a much different situation than 2 years ago when there was no choice but to live through all the freshman mistakes. we'll see a lot of jorgensen and we'll see his freshman mistakes, but only if he is making real, positive contributions. ditto watanabe, swan, bryant, cimino. that is exactly the type of situation you do want for freshmen.
You need veterans for crunch time. you need guys who will go out there with the game on the line and not screw up. we have that. You don't need veteren depth you just need depth. Our freshman are going to win us 3 or 4 more games than they will lose for us.
7/29/2014 7:45:01 AM - Long Suffering Fan - 3,498 posts (#6)
17-19 wins for a class that is going to need much help from the freshman is actually an upbeat prediction. Even if the "core 4" are on the court for 110 minutes a game, that still leaves 90 minutes to fill in the gaps with Kopriva, Griffin and 5 freshman. That is investing alot in unproven players. This appears to be a good freshman class that should continue to improve as the season progresses. Getting back to 24 wins without an Armwood to shut down a McDermitt or without a Creek to bail us out against Maryland...that is going to be difficult. So there is no misunderstanding, I think this team can ultimately be better than the 2013-2014 version. It is certainly much deeper and should be significantly better shooting. Next year, when we only have Kopriva to replace rather than Zeek and Creek...then you will see the jump. This year may be a tad soon.
7/29/2014 7:57:24 AM - Poog - 3,596 posts (#5)
Don't know who it will be, Core 4 or a freshman, but I'm confident that there are a number of guys who will be that Creek v Maryland hero. Without Armwood, next year's team will have a different identity for sure. But they will still win and will still be seen in post-season play. We're just a little too removed from those years of sustained success to readily expect it. But we should.
7/29/2014 8:11:58 AM - Monument - 549 posts (#42)
Goal and expectation is NCAA bid. After that depends on seeding and upsets.
7/29/2014 8:36:57 AM - Maine Colonial - 230 posts (#94)
I have complete faith in Coach Lonergan so I am prediciting 24 wins and a trip to the Sweet Sixteen. After three years at GW, Lonergan is tracking ahead of Coach K's first three years at the helm at Duke. Lonergan has a .500 record after last year's 24-10 season and took GW to the NCAA tournament a year earlier than Coach K took Duke. In Year 3, Coach K's Duke team was 11-17 and his career winning percentage at Duke stood at .447. It wasn't until Year 4 that he finally took Duke to the NCAA tournament and the team ended the season 24-10. In Year 5, the team made it to the NCAA Tournament again and finished 23-8. Year Six the team rolled to a 28-7 record and made it to the Final Four. I think Coach L and Coach K are similar in how they recruit quality kids who are physically talented, smart, work hard and are coachable. Look for GW to make the Final Four in Coach Lonergan's fifth season 2015-2016 to stay ahead of Coach K. It's going to be an amazing ride. Raise High!
7/29/2014 8:40:58 AM - Free Quebec - 5,719 posts (#2)
Iexpect us to be top 2 in the A10 and back in the tourney (won't be disappointed if we are top 4 though instead - the margin is so narrow). Rememeber that we barely ever saw Pato and Kethan healthy and in the groove together. VCU was one of the only times, along with at St Bona and those might have been our best back to back games of the year. Assuming Savage has his groove back, he and joe are going to be a really tough backcourt, with a refuse to lose mentality. Garino is going to be a first team all league player unless parity of stats on our team holds his stock back. Larsen is going to be arguably the league's top offensive big man. And I think the bench will contribute. Yes, replacing Ziik is going g to be an adjustment, but I think we have the kinds of players who will find ways to overcome. The failure to land a 1 year rental at PF keeps is from being top 25 but doesn't keep us from being very good.
7/29/2014 9:25:06 AM - CH - 72 posts (#179)
With the talent we have back and the taste of success we got last year, I feel like anything less than an NCAA birth would be a disappointment. How we replace Armwood keeps me up at night, but there is too much talent and now, too much experience to be happy with anything less than an NCAA birth.
I have to caveat this with the fact I go into every year with the hope/expectation that GW will somehow and someway advance to the tourney. But this year is obviously different. I think we could be in the midst of a run of 4 or 5 straight trips.
7/29/2014 9:31:04 AM - The MV - 4,343 posts (#4)
Bobo, I see Yuta doing many positive things but I don't think that "battling big men" is part of his arsenal. He may play the 4 in a quicker lineup and has the height to grab some rebounds but he is rail thin. If "battling" is another way of saying "outmuscling", I don't foresee it.
I would say that the general consensus appears to be very optimistic, moreso than I would have thought. Let me phrase the question differently...what would the best possible outcome be for this team that would leave you feeling disappointed because the team fell short of your expectations? First round NCAA loss (first game..technically second round like last year)? Play-in game NCAA loss? NIT Final 4? Early loss in NIT? Failing to make the NIT? Some other outcome?
7/29/2014 12:53:58 PM - Pkgw - 103 posts (#154)
I think 18 plus wins and an NIT or above berth would be a successful season. Here are my thoughts why:
1. We will not sneak up on anybody. In fact, we may be the game that other schools point to as a big win for rpi reasons.
2. Lots of road games against big conference teams. While they are not top tier it is very hard to win on the road in that environment.
3. Every year there are teams on the bubble geT get left out. That is not in the teams control when it comes to selection Sunday..
4. Selfishly since I drive 40 minutes to each home game, a other 1 loss home slate would be great. Makes the drive home easier.
7/29/2014 1:39:01 PM - GW0811 - 254 posts (#85)
Top 4 finish in A10
NCAA appearance and at least 1 win.
Even with the loss of Zeke and Mo, the talent is there to, at minimum, reach the NCAA
7/29/2014 1:58:22 PM - Bobo - 2,929 posts (#8)
If not Yuta at the 4, MV, who would you have at the 4/5 backing up Larsen and Kopiva? Thats about 30-35 minutes to fill defensively at the 4/5 and I don't see too many other good options. Pato should always be at the top of the 1-3-1 because he's just so good at it so putting him at the 4 would be a waste of his defensive talents.
7/29/2014 1:59:44 PM - NewGWFan - 396 posts (#56)
I think the whole sneaking up on teams thing is overblown. Take last year for instance. I'm a college bball fan and feel that I'm pretty knowledgable year in and year out with if a team is great, good, or bad, if I was a college basketball assistant coach or even a player and I was invested or possibly paid to prepare to actually play these teams I would be even more knowledgable.
Point being, I can see how GW could have potentially snuck up on a team like Miami and Creighton last year. But once that happens and a team shows they are capable of winning that kind of game, it's not going to happen again. Take Maryland last year or Georgia. I bet those teams fully understood what they were preparing for when they were going to play GW.
7/29/2014 2:08:33 PM - GW Alum Abroad - 2,226 posts (#13)
1-- Attendance will be befuddlingly low for the calibre of the team. This will spark a plethora of threads here.
2-- The Washington Post will give the team a small newshole, even after the Washington NFL team is long out of contention and it is obvious that neither College Park CC nor That School Down the Street are any good. This will spark a plethora of threads here.
3-- At least one of the emerging players will turn out to have a great backstory that gets picked up by the local media.
4-- UNCC fans will show up here ahead of that game and attempt to be bigger morons than the Memphis St fans, hopefully they will fail.
5-- Frosh will at times exceed expectations and at times frustrate us. At least one will prove to be a "player" and one will spark baseless transfer speculation.
6-- Leo's will STILL be a better game day eating option than the Smith Center concessions. And Bone burgers will always be great!
7-- Mine will be the most droll of the posts on this thread.
7/29/2014 2:54:21 PM - The MV - 4,343 posts (#4)
Bobo, there isn't an ideal answer. I agree that Pato stays at the top of the zone. A combination of Cimino and perhaps McCoy (if he can earn some meaningful minutes) and Bryant (if the opposing "4" isn't say 6'8" or taller) is the collective answer. BTW, I suspect that Yuta will be on the floor a lot with a smaller lineup and by default, may wind up guarding a more powerful player. My point though is despite his being 6'8" or 6'9" (he legitimately looks to be this size, unlike the 6'7"-6'8" Anthony Swan who looks a lot closer to 6'6"), Yuta does not at all appear to be a "down and dirty" banger. He will hit 3's and will be very strong at finishing breaks.
7/29/2014 3:06:37 PM - Skittles - 111 posts (#147)
I have to disagree with you on that first point, GWAA. Our last few home games had lots of people show up, with even a sold out homecoming game. We proved to be a very good team last year, and hopefully we will prove to be just as good if not better given our depth this year, and hopefully the fans will continue to show their support by attending the home games-and bring friends. I forgot to add that the A10 tourney (first game-quite a few people left before the VCU game) and the NCAA game had great showings as well, especially the A10 tourney game against UMass where the fans filled up the entire 40/40 club and were a huge presence during the game. I believe we will see more people attend games (even early on), and I predict us to go back to the dance!
7/29/2014 7:20:48 PM - pops - 299 posts (#73)
i agree with you on our 4 options. i think McCoy may see minutes against certain matchups he's bigger and beefier than i thought and at Kenner actually looked like he could hold his own underneath. maybe because he's been the tallest kid on his team. but i think he has a more well rounded skill set than others have reported. he's not gonna run the floor well but could help out if we're being pushed around underneath. ditto bryant against some undersized muscle guys. By the same token there will be many times potentially when yuta will be out there as the 4. will depend on rotations and match-ups. remeber yuta on the floor could cause nitemare matchups for the other team and force them to go small. its not just a one way equation.
you do want garino at the top in the 1-3-1 but he's an extremely good rebounder when he hangs around. in a man d he can match up against virtually anyone. reason he's not our leading rebounder is simply he likes to be first out on the break and is often out on the perimeter. he's our best option at every position (almost).
7/29/2014 8:11:39 PM - bobo - 2,929 posts (#8)
McCoy averaged 1 pt 1 reb a game for Manhattan. I'm not too optimistic for him. I do think Bryant will be a fall back option after Cimino and Yuta at the 4 but he's only 6-4. He'll probably be quick enough to handle the 4 position in the 1-3-1 (the middle player in the 3) that Zeek played last year but he'll still have to drop down on big men and rebound defensively. Although he played down low in HS, that would be a tough order for an undersized Bryant against A10 level big men.
Still like Larsen and Kopriva to start backed up by Cimino and the 6-9 Yuta to start the season. I could even see Yuta start in the front court with Larsen, Pato, Savage and McDonald eventually if he develops quickly.