The MV8/18/2016 10:45:06 AM
The annual summer discussion about minutes is usually based on factors like what we saw last year, what positions need to be replaced, how heralded an incoming freshman or transfer might be, and how players looked at Kenner. This year, we have the added benefit of exhibition games in Japan. Realizing that it's only been two games, here is how the minutes have been distributed on average in Japan:
C. Goss 6
C. Smith 5
While much can change, it has been Lonergan's tendency to know what he wants early and where possible, to allow inexperienced players to learn from more experienced ones. I'm a little disaappointed to see Jair Bolden receive such little playing time particularly with Darnell not having made the trip. It certainly looks like both Jordan and Matt are going to be counted on this year at the two. Right now, Matt is also getting the backup point guard minutes, and that would be ahead of Jair. I do expect Jaren's minutes to increase, and am not expecting much from Justin or Adam this season.
In the frontcourt, Tyler, Yuta and Kevin will make things crowded for many others. Some projected Patrick as a possible starter. Still could happen but right now, he looks like a steady first forward off the bench. Would like to see Arnaldo receive some more minutes but that might be hard this season. As long as they stay out of foul trouble, Tyler and Yuta shoudl receive big minutes while I'm anticipating Kevin playing around 18-25 minutes a game based on foul trouble (there is usually a learning curve among freshmen with physical styles of play as to what will be called a foul).
Anyone surprised by the allocated minutes in Japan? Expecting any significant changes to this?
Let's go!8/18/2016 11:00:33 AM
I expect Yuta to get more than 27 minutes, considering he played around 28 minutes last season.
Also a bit surprised that Roland is playing more than Sina, who's more experienced.
hungryhungrytractenberg8/18/2016 11:03:29 AM
I pretty much agree. The players who are receiving the most minutes are returning players who know the system (Sina included).
I fully expect Patrick and Kevin to get more PT than in Japan with GW continuing to go with a large lineup when possible.
I was only surprised when Goss started the first game, even if he only got limited minutes.
Colonial NY8/18/2016 11:26:43 AM
Jair is coming off an injury correct? And couldn't participate fully all summer? That might explain his limited minutes this far in Japan. I suspect Jaren is getting fewer minutes too as he was with the Kosovo National Team and thus wasn't playing/practicing with the team as much this summer.
GW Alum Abroad8/18/2016 12:53:03 PM
Are you assuming that Darnell either does not become elligible or if he does he redshirts instead?
The Dude8/18/2016 1:13:03 PM
Sina Marfo and Toro's #s will go up. Steeves probably too. JR and Goss Minutes will go down
Bigfan8/18/2016 3:16:26 PM
Without foul trouble, would look for Kevin to play closer to 25 minutes or more.
Tyler and Yuta are going to be the workhorses, which shows our limited depth of experienced players.
Interesting to see Matt at backup point. Imagine Jaren will play closer to 30 minutes a game. Toro will be closer to five or six minutes, but depends on how he develops defensively. Same with Colin Smith.
Patrick should start if he is able to, but depends obviously on his physical state. He's not Mo Creek at all, but seems like he can occasionally have a big game. And also because of his height. can be more effective inside if his physical state allow him to drive and rebound.
Also suprised about Goss. Wonder if it was either height against small Japan team, or trying to show fairness to returning player or his knowledge of the system, or reward for gaining weight. Which, if correct, perhaps should indeed be rewarded. Don't look for him to be a major contributor, but would be very happy to be surprised.
Can see Justin at the top of the 1-3-1 for defensive purposes, given his physical abilities. Possibly, at times at the bottom, given his great strength for his size.
Hope Adam gets a chance to make appearances, shoot and defend to give starters and others a respite. Maybe he can develop into his brother over time.
Darnell will be a great addition whenever he gets into a GW uniform. Worth waiting for, both for us and him.
The MV8/18/2016 3:47:03 PM
GWAA, I'm not assuming very much from Darnell this season. If he is eligible to join this team in late December, he will be far behind the learning curve that other newcomers will have already begun to experience. I'd say that ML's principles and need for control come into play too. He is going to want Darnell to play a certain way...less freelancing and improvising than he is likely used to (and I base this only on having seen him play digitally). If Darnell were allowed to join the team and "do his own thing", he might be successful (he could also fail miserably). But I don't see that opportunity being afforded to him. This isn't Shawnta also joining his team in late December but playing for Mike Jarvis (who really gave Shawnta tremendous freedom from the beginning).
Good point Colonial NY on Jair coming off an injury. Even still, his minutes may very well be more limited than we would hope or like. The rule of thumb with Lonergan has been to not play freshman very much unless there is: a) a necessity, like the Core 4 starting as freshmen or Kevin likely receiving substantial playing time this season, or b) the player is uniquely gifted (such as how ML feels about Yuta). With Sina, Roland, Hart and either Yuta or Steeves being able to absorb backcourt minutes, we may see Jair experience a season similar to what Jordan experienced last season, only to see him (hopefully) make the jump during his sophomore season.
Bo Knows8/18/2016 4:40:56 PM
I am going to clarify for one particular poster here because as we have seen in the past these predictions will be taken as guarantees. So DISCLAIMER for this one poster ... these are my best guess predictions on August 18, 2016 about things that may or may not happen in November 2016 - March 2017. Please note that injuries and performances of players may dictate changes.
Tyler - 31
Yuta - 27
Jaren - 27
Kevin - 23
Jordan - 20
Patrick - 20
Matt - 18
Arnaldo - 11
Collin - 8
Jair - 8
Goss - 4
Justin - 2
Adam - 1
BC8/18/2016 4:45:39 PM
Yes, injuries could easily ruin this season, or any other season. Pray, if you're into that.
2cents8/18/2016 7:21:11 PM
I feel like Jordan Roland could score 40 points a game and the Dude would still be asserting his correctness and telling us how he isn't an A10 caliber player and his points will go down and he will transfer to a JUCO. No love for this kid.
The Dude8/18/2016 8:03:57 PM
I watched his Japan games and saw a guy with the same major flaws, slow release line drive jumper, not strong enough, trouble finishing in traffic. He does look improved though. He will have to improve a great deal more though IMO, I'd be delighted if he does.
2cents8/18/2016 8:14:23 PM
I hear ya, Dude. Just giving you a hard time. But you have to admit, he'd be a stud at a JUCO.
dmvpiranha8/18/2016 8:29:29 PM
I wouldn't be surprised to see Tyler get KevLar like minutes if he stays out of foul trouble (36 per game), although I'd be delighted if he plays closer to 30 to keep him fresh and give the others more experience.
Yuta will probably get around 30. He was starting to get around that much towards the end of last year. Not much depth behind him at the moment except Steeves I guess.
Sina will get around 28-30 minutes that JoeMac got.
Marfo about 20 minutes based on how he plays. Maybe 25 is more realistic as a presumed starter.
The shooting guard position has yet to be well defined with Yuta potentially playing there some along with Hart and Roland, and to a much lesser extent Williams. I expect ML to ride the hot hand depending on how Hart and Roland play. The one having the better day will have more playing time. I'll give the edge to Roland as he showed some defensive promise and will still potentially be around to play for two more years while Hart is graduating after this year. I think 22-23 for JR and 17-18 MH is about right. Williams will probably get 2-3 minutes. He appears to be built well like Bryant and as long as he can finish at the rim (unlike Bryant) I expect him to take a jump sophomore year with more experience.
ML likes experience, so I expect Steeves to get around 25-27 minutes as a starter or the 6th man. His shooting is welcomed on a young team.
Toro and Smith will be competing for minutes behind Marfo I assume. Collin is technically a center, so maybe they will be on the court at the same time when ML does his "line change" five minutes into the game. I will give the edge to Toro as he is a little stronger at this point, but Smith has shown a lot of promise from the Japan highlights in his few minutes of playing time. If he gets a bit stronger he will be a big factor. He's the sleeper player to do well on the team. Although it wouldn't appear in the box score, Toro was hustling in the highlights and that's good to see. He always looked engaged. I think about 12-15 for Toro and 8-10 for Smith seems about right.
How Goss fits into the equation is interesting. I think ML may play him above Toro and Smith at the beginning of the season since he is more familiar with the system. I have hard time believing he will get more than 5-7 minutes at this point though. He did have a nice putback and seems to have gotten stronger, although I feel this incoming freshman class should get the minutes as they will be the foundation of the program for years to come.
Bolden will probably get up to 10 minutes per game, although I think he will probably get about as much as PJ did freshman year. His minutes will increase over the course of the season as he gets healthy and recovers assuming Darnell isn't available.
Don't know how much we will see Mitola play, although he appears to be a good enough shooter. 1-2 minutes at most.
The Dude8/18/2016 8:46:26 PM
Haha yes, He'd be a stud at a Juco, but a role player for an Ivy, and for an upper tier A10 he should no part of 25 minutes a night nevermind 5 minutes. If JR is playing 20+ minutes this year, we're in serious trouble.
Looking at these minute predictions, I feel less bullish about the season. We really need the new entities to play a lot and play well to avoid a big fall off. If we're rolling out Hart/JR 50 minutes a night and actually playing Goss nearly as much as Toro, we're going to get wiped about by the top of half of the A10. Granted, I don't think that's happening, but much tougher year to project minute breakdown until we see more. Last year at this time it was fairly obvious.
ziik8/18/2016 9:02:17 PM
My guess, Roland will prove a valuable combo guard, and, if her can play without getting worn down or beaten up, we all will be happy to see him on the court. I really have not seen his shot as being all that slow. Quirky, that's all. And, he is very willing to mix it up underneath. Got to admire him.
I think Goss will be vert lucky ever to start, absent some sort of plague breaking out on the frontline, or a gesture of thanks to him by ML, for 4 years of loyalty. But, he will get those short-spells where he mixes it up as a sub, and does not embarrass himself.
I am real impressed with Yuta. He must really be a hard worker. Sina seems to have great confidence handling the ball.
Maybe by season's end, ML fashions a bench.
This particular trip abroad was almost a no-brainer, but no matter. It is brilliant. My guess, Smith Center is going to be filled with people wanting a look at Yuta and Ty.
xAC8/18/2016 9:41:37 PM
Ziik – some good points. I need to see a little more of the newcomers before any final observations, but from what I’ve seen so far, the front court can be pretty consistent except for where size matters (we’re not tall). Ty and Yuta are locks, but you’ll see Marfo, Steeves (primarily), with Smith and Toro in the rotation. I can’t see Goss getting too many minutes. Roland has improved a lot, and I think he has a big up side—will be a really good 2 guard as a junior/senior. Between Roland and Hart, I think that position will be adequate. If Williams is a tough defender, maybe he’ll get some minutes too.
PG depth could be problematic. Sina seems like a strong ball handler who can dribble at top speed. Beyond Sina, I don’t think we have anyone this year (unless Darnell shows up) that could handle the ball as well as PJ (I think he’ll be missed). Hart is not a confident ball handler and can panic under pressure so I don’t see him playing too many minutes at PG. Caveat is that if Bolden or Mitola can step up, maybe this isn’t such a big problem.
Overall, I see our front court being pretty good, but our back court adequate. If our guards can step it up, we could have a decent year.
Mentzinger8/18/2016 10:02:19 PM
Some frontcourt depth would take some of the defensive attention away off Ty as he takes legitimate aim at conference POY. I think the Bo Knows depth chart looks about right ... having seen only highlights from Japan in, umh, August?
thinker8/18/2016 10:48:59 PM
I guess I would approach this in a different way.
1) First if ML feels like he has good depth, then I would hope that this would allow the team to play more aggressive defense and run more on offense. The biggest reason why guys could play so many minutes last year was because we played a lot more zone defense and almost always were in a slow down mode on offense. Guys would run out of gas otherwise. So if we have much better depth we can go at teams more and then not have to worry about foul trouble and exhaustion as much.
2) If you say Marfo is going to play 20 minutes, then you have to ask where do the other 20 minutes at the center position come from? Do you conceptualize Goss/Smith as our backup center or do we slide Tyler over when Marfo is out? If Tyler slides over then who do you conceptualize as our backup power forward? Is it Toro/Smith or do you slide Yuta over?
So to me the minutes discussion really turns into a rotation and player combinations discussion. Is a Goss/Smith -- Tyler -- Yuta lineup better than a Tyler -- Toro -- Yuta lineup or would a lineup of Tyler -- Yuta -- Steeves lineup be better? So the minutes are a lot more dependent on how well a bunch of guys at different positions play than usual.
3) Another issue in my mind is that the rotation tends to narrow as we get into crunch time in the conference schedule. So if Tyler, for instance ends up averaging 32 minutes per game that would likely work out to 30 minutes per game in the OOC nad 34 minutes per game in the conference schedule. It would be nice if we can avoid having Tyler, Yuta, Sina, and Steeves play too many minutes in the OCC so they don't wear down later.
4) I also conceptualize that players will be in tiers as far as minutes.
For me Tier 1 is Tyler, Yuta, Sina, and Steeves - mostly playing the same number of minutes give or take.
Tier 2 is Marfo and Hart or Roland whichever one of those guys end up out performing the other (if that happens).
Tier 2a is Hart and Roland if they end up splitting their minutes
Tier 3 is Toro, Smith, and Hart or Roland - whichever one is significantly out performed by the other (if that happens).
Tier 4 is Goss, Williams, and Bolden
Bo Knows8/19/2016 8:33:04 AM
I see it as something like this ...
Cavanaugh, Marfo, Toro, Smith and Goss eating up almost all the minutes at the 4/5. Yuta can play there a bit too but I only assumed about 3 minutes/game there for him.
At the 3 you have Yuta playing most of the minutes with Steeves and Williams being able to play there. Assume Yuta plays 24 minutes at 3, Steeves about 14 and Williams 2.
Finally you have he guards. At the point I have Sina with 27, Bolden with 8 and Roland with 5.
At the 2 you have a 3-headed monster of Hart at 18, Roland 15, Steeves about 6 and Mitola 1.
Now the front court minutes should largely be the same from game to game unless Yuta plays more up front. However, depending on opponents, Steeves could get more or less at 2/3 and Hart/Roland could get more or less at 2. Perhaps Bolden steps up and plays more than 8 to eliminate the need to go to Roland at all at point. To me the 1-2-3 is going to be where the larger variables are because absent injury you can dial in Cavanaugh and Marfo for about 65-70% of the minutes up front leaving the other 3 guys for the rest. We have more unknowns/unprovens at the 1-2.
Of course, if Rogers comes aboard, I reserve the right to revise my remarks.
GW Alum Abroad8/19/2016 10:03:29 AM
See the mins played line from the most recent game in Japan. Not sure how that will translate in to the season (especially since the end of the bench gots lots of time in a blowout).
bobo8/19/2016 11:15:01 AM
There's been talk on the board that ML doesn't really consider traditional postions for the players and is just looking for the best 5 to put on the floor. That has never in the actual playing time past players recieved or lineups. ML ALWAYS has at least 2 bigs on the floor. He always wants a PG and a couple of wings.
So for last year, the C was always Larsen/Cavs/Goss (limited) and the PF was always either Cavs/Yuta/Swan. 2 big men on the floor. McD/Mitola/Jorgensen at PG and 2 wings to go along with them. Yuta was helpful since he could play multiple positions. So when Cavs/Larsen were out he switched to PF and played SF when Garino sat.
Next year I see the following:
C: Marfo 25, Toro 10, Smith/Goss 5 (eventually 1 of the 2 will emerge)
PF: Cavs 34, Yuta 6 - Maybe Toro gets some more time here if he plays well from the start
SF: Yuta 20, Steeves 20
SG: Roland 20, Yuta 6, Hart 14
PF: Sina 26, Bolden 8, Hart 6
So that's a 10 man rotation. Probably too much, so if they go 9 take out Smith/Goss. If it's just 8, take out Bolden.
Breaking next year down
Bo Knows8/19/2016 12:03:52 PM
Your prediction is about as reasonable as any at this point except I believe Roland would play point before Hart and after Bolden. Also don't think Yuta goes 32 a game. Likewise I think the 4/5 is flexible and you will see different combos of Cavanaugh/Marfo, Cavanaugh/Toro, Cavanaugh/Smith as well as Marfo/Smith, Marfo/Goss etc.
I think the main takeaway is that this team will go at least 9 to 10 deep (Goss, Williams and Mitola to see limited minutes) and that with the exception of probably Sina, Hart and Goss, most everyone on team can play more than one spot. This gives ML huge lineup flexibility and will allow him to play different defenses and run different sets on offense that will vary depending on whether he can pound it inside or needs more outside threats. My only worry is the health of 3 players who we do not have at this point everyday replacements for - Cavanaugh, Sina and Yuta.
bobo8/19/2016 1:36:59 PM
The preseason reports had Hart playing PG with Bolden and Sina, so that's why I had Hart as a backup PG instead of Roland. Also could see it the other way.
Most teams these days have lots of combo guards and long wings so players are generally more versitile than in the past. Still, I think ML will try to establish certain rotations.
Cavs can play SF but didn't play SF at all last year and I don't think he will this year either. Dude predicts Toro will start at SF. I predict Toro will play 0 minutes this year at SF.
A Marfo/Goss front court scares me (not in a good way).
Steeves can probably play SG but in what lineup would he play SG? If he's with Hart/Sina/Roland he plays SF. If he's replacing Yuta it's at SF. If he plays with Yuta, I think Yuta is a better defensive player on the wing so Yuta plays SG defensively and they both hang out out on the wing offensively.
I think we always are too bullish in predicting how many players will get regular playing time before the season starts. Last year this board generally had 10-11 man lineups. Same for previous years. I'd be happy if GW could have a solid 8 rotation this year.
Bo Knows8/19/2016 1:51:47 PM
True bobo about rotations and numbers. Generally, in college basketball you are forunate if you have 9 that can play. I guess because we have so many newcomers (7 total), it's hard to figure out who settles in to the rotation at this point. We don't have enough datapoints yet.
The Dude8/19/2016 2:12:20 PM
I think by mid season GW will start its 5 best players. Those 5 I believe are Sina Yuta Marfo Toro and TC. Could well be Steeves with Toro as the 6th man too.
If Goss JR and Hart are playing 50-60 minutes a night we're in bad shape, particularly the first 2. Defense matters...a lot.
The Dude8/19/2016 2:24:14 PM
Also, don't think I said Toro would play the "4" not that the 5 positions matter that much other than who is playing Point. The crux is who is on the court, and I think JR and Hart will play far fewer minutes than most think and Goss will get nearly zero meaningful minutes.
At this time last year, people were predicting significant minutes from Cimino Goss JR and Swan. I get it, springs eternal in the minds of the fan base.
Come A10 season, we can't throw on the court guys who are badly overmatched. Marfo and Toro won't be, JR Goss (and defensively Hart) will be, although Hart will get some minutes. The real wild card is Jair, who I think may well surpass Hart and def JR on the depth chart and emerge as the back up Point and maybe first G off the bench.
hungryhungrytrachtenberg8/19/2016 2:38:07 PM
Sorta agree with Dude. Playing the best players, even if they're a bit younger and inexperienced, has been Lonergan's philosphy since day one at GW. Have to believe this helped the development of the core four as freshmen.
Bo Knows8/19/2016 2:41:25 PM
Who said Goss, Swann and Cimino would get significant minutes last year???? Please find that post. By significant I assume you mean more than 10 minutes a game.
JR is actually much better defensively than you give him credit for. His problem last year was confidence on offense. He seems to have overcome that to a large extent so far. You are free to ignore his progress if you wish but you will likely be seeing a lot of JR this winter.
Maine Colonial8/19/2016 5:41:21 PM
Through three games against Japan, Jordan is averaging 9 points a game having made 1 of 4 three pointers and 10 of 18 two pointers (56%). Most of them have been pull up, medium-range jumpshots. He has 4 turnovers and 4 assists playing against some scrappy Japanese guards, a couple of whom played with Yuta during Olympic qualifying. He also reportedly played well during Kenner League action. Jordan definitely is stronger this year and I'm no expert but it looks like he has altered his release so it's higher and less likely to get blocked. I think it took him most of last year to increase his strength and work on his shot and the result of all the hardwork was that beautiful three-point jumper during the NIT Championship game. Lonergan clearly likes him and as long as Lonergan is around and he continues to play well, Jordan is going to get significantly more playing time than last year whether someone here likes it or not.
2cents8/19/2016 6:09:29 PM
Hungry, when has he had "better, but younger, inexperienced" players starting or playing more than upper class men? I feel like I missed that part. The core four were what he had to work with when he got here. The older kids either weren't that good or transferred, right?
Bigfan8/19/2016 10:44:14 PM
Think absent of JR making a real jump,which he is capable of,Steeves starts if healthy and doesn' t need to be used spotlike to preserve his health.
Maine Colonial8/19/2016 10:47:57 PM
Here are the averages through the first three games along with the (highest game minutes):
Tyler 28 (#2 34)
Yuta 27 (#2 29)
Jaren 24 (#3 28)
Matt 24 (#2 26)
Jordan 23 (#2 28)
Kevin 19 (#1 20,5)
Patrick 18 (#3 22)
Arnaldo 12 (#3 16)
Collin G. 8 (#3 10)
Collin S. 7 (#3 10)
Jair 5 (#3 7)
Justin 3 (#3 6)
Adam 2 (#3 5)
Maine Colonial8/19/2016 11:15:10 PM
Here are the averages for the veteran players in their last year and their average points that year:
Jaren* 32.2 & 7 points (*at Seton Hall 2014-15)
Tyler 30.4 & 16.8 points
Yuta 27.7 & 8.4 points
Patrick* 22.7 & 9.1 points (*at Harvard LY)
Matt 8.8 & 3.8 points
Jordan 4.7 & 1.2 points
Collin G. 2.3 & 0.1 points
ziik8/19/2016 11:27:49 PM
Clearly, Matt need 25mpg- 12ppg
Maine Colonial8/19/2016 11:31:11 PM
Here are the point averages through the three games:
Collin S. 3
Collin G. 1.3
ziik8/19/2016 11:52:49 PM
Unless its an optical delusion, or a speeded up tape, GW's offense play seems real quick. And, JR, along woth Yuta and Cav, are aggressive with the ball. Sina has a lot of handle and a damn quick shot, too.
Bigfan8/20/2016 6:35:24 PM
With tears in my eyes TRIGGER WARNING (Gender stereotyping. Call GWhoops.com Title IX coordinator and Adam Kilgore), if men cried over such things: putting Darnell down for xero minutes.
Bright spot: things sunk so low,not hysterical like we would normally be. Just a modest gut punch in context of recent troubles,rather than the severe blow it would normally be.
Anyone know of point guard with immediate availability?
GW Fan8/20/2016 10:56:31 PM
When Darnell becomes eligible I'd love to see ML draw up a speed unit with Darnell, Smith, Toro, Steeves and Hart. Have them come in at the 12 minute mark for 3-4 minutes to press and run off of misses or makes. I could see that unit get some wide open threes in transition, layups or alley oops off of Darnell's dribble penetration, as well as wearing down the opponent. Then bring TC, Marfo, Sina, Roland and Yuta back in to finish the half, hopefully against some winded starters or the opponent's 2nd unit. This could create a situation where we could create some foul trouble for opponents or expand a margin going into the half, as well as throwing a wrinkle into how opponents plan coaching adjustments for the 2nd half.
The Dude8/20/2016 11:01:47 PM
You need to get stops first. Doubt you'll ever see those 5 on the court together for that reason, although there seems to be doubt if we see Darnell at all.
GW Fan8/20/2016 11:26:54 PM
Guess I should have caught up on the Darnell thread before posting. Very disappointing if true.
Bigfan8/21/2016 5:53:16 AM
Had a rare second margarita at dinner.
But there isn' t enough tequila to blot out the pain of this news.